Structure of temperature time series at Mosul

AbstractThe four components of temperature (max., min.) phenomena , seasonal (S),Trend(T), cyclical(C) , and Irrigular (I) for Mosul city have been studied . Four different methods are used to deduct the (S) components and seasonal index for each method is determined .The statistical inferences pointed that the third method can be used in the prediction of temperature . for the year 2001 depending on a historical record (1950-2000) . The result of this deduction showed that the temperature is a cyclical phenomena . The known statistical test like Auto correlation coefficient , Spectrum analysis ,cumulative probability , Standard deviation and mean have been done which showed a good correlation between the predicted and historical data .The predicted record of (10) years long are well done by this method. Key words : predicted , temperature , Seasonal component , seasonal index