Probabilities of Storage States of Real Time Reservoir System

AbstractThe long-term probabilities of storage states of Bakhma reservoir system at northern part of Iraq have been investigated. The seasonal probability transition matrices have been manipulated in different orders to construct the yearly probability transition matrices where the latter were implemented to calculate the steady state probabilities. The results reveal that the final state of the system depends upon how one can manipulate the seasonal transition matrices in an appropriate order. Additionally, it was found that Bakhma reservoir workable storage is either underestimated and should be re-evaluated or the turbine capacity has to be increased to generate additional power, otherwise, significant amount of water might be lost over the spillway. Keywords:Transition matrix, Long Term Probabilities, Reservoir Storage Estimation