The New Approach Optimization Markov Weighted Fuzzy Time Series using Particle Swarm Algorithm

Markov Weighted Fuzzy Time Series is a forecasting method that applies fuzzy logic to form linguistic variable from existing data. The formation of linguistic variable make it possible for the forecasting process to be more accurate by considering uncertainty aspect in decision making. Its formation is started by grouping the data into certain number of clusters.. In the process of grouping, the existing data will be grouped into several clusters so that it results in the interval length of each cluster. One of the problem of this grouping is the absence of base standard in the clustering process so it is prone to have difference value in forecasting accuracy. The difference in the number of the class or interval length will result in different accuracy even though the clustering method that is used is the same. On this study, the writer proposes the idea of using Particle Swarm Optimization to improve the interval length. The initial interval that is already obtained through K-means clustering algorithm will be evaluated using Particle Swarm Optimization method so that it will have a new interval that later will be used in forecasting. The accuracy of forecasting can be calculated by using Mean Absolute Percentage Error from Markov Weighted Fuzzy Time Series conventional method and Markov Weighted Fuzzy Time Series method with Particle Swarm Optimization. The result of this study is by using Particle Swarm Optimization, there is an improvement in error value from 8.03% to 5.88%.